Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatia...

Ausführliche Beschreibung

Gespeichert in:
Bibliographische Detailangaben
Veröffentlicht in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS 2020-10, Vol.117 (42), p.26151-26157
Hauptverfasser: Li, Ruiyun, Chen, Bin, Zhang, Tao, Ren, Zhehao, Song, Yimeng, Xiao, Yixiong, Hou, Lin, Cai, Jun, Xu, Bo, Li, Miao, Chan, Karen Kie Yan, Tu, Ying, Yang, Mu, Yang, Jing, Liu, Zhaoyang, Shen, Chong, Wang, Che, Xu, Lei, Liu, Qiyong, Bao, Shuming, Zhang, Jianqin, Bi, Yuhai, Bai, Yuqi, Deng, Ke, Zhang, Wusheng, Huang, Wenyu, Whittington, Jason D., Stenseth, Nils Chr, Guan, Dabo, Gong, Peng, Xu, Bing
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Online-Zugang:Volltext
Tags: Tag hinzufügen
Keine Tags, Fügen Sie den ersten Tag hinzu!
Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
ISSN:0027-8424
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2012002117