Can pollen explain the seasonality of flu-like illnesses in the Netherlands?
Current models for flu-like epidemics insufficiently explain multi-cycle seasonality. Meteorological factors alone, including the associated behavior, do not predict seasonality, given substantial climate differences between countries that are subject to flu-like epidemics or COVID-19. Pollen is doc...
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Veröffentlicht in: | The Science of the total environment 2021-02, Vol.755 (Pt 2), p.143182-143182, Article 143182 |
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Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | Current models for flu-like epidemics insufficiently explain multi-cycle seasonality. Meteorological factors alone, including the associated behavior, do not predict seasonality, given substantial climate differences between countries that are subject to flu-like epidemics or COVID-19. Pollen is documented to be allergenic, it plays a role in immuno-activation and defense against respiratory viruses, and seems to create a bio-aerosol that lowers the reproduction number of flu-like viruses. Therefore, we hypothesize that pollen may explain the seasonality of flu-like epidemics, including COVID-19, in combination with meteorological variables.
We have tested the Pollen-Flu Seasonality Theory for 2016–2020 flu-like seasons, including COVID-19, in the Netherlands, with its 17.4 million inhabitants. We combined changes in flu-like incidence per 100 K/Dutch residents (code: ILI) with pollen concentrations and meteorological data. Finally, a predictive model was tested using pollen and meteorological threshold values, inversely correlated to flu-like incidence.
We found a highly significant inverse correlation of r(224) = −0.41 (p |
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ISSN: | 0048-9697 1879-1026 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143182 |