Effect of Progression of Valvular Calcification on Left Ventricular Structure and Frequency of Incident Heart Failure (from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

•Valve calcium progression and heart failure risk was assessed in a diverse cohort.•Progression of valve calcification was associated with increased heart failure risk.•Association seen for heart failure with preserved but not reduced ejection fraction.•This was independent of interim coronary heart disease & atrial fibrillation events. Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity. Strategies for preventing HF are paramount. Prevalent extracoronary calcification is associated with HF risk but less is known about progression of mitral annular (MAC) and aortic valve calcification (AVC) and HF risk. Progression of valvular calcification (VC) [interval change of >0 units/yr] was assessed by 2 cardiac computed tomography scans over a median of 2.4 years. We used Cox regression to determine the risk of adjudicated HF and linear mixed effects models to determine 10-year change in left ventricular (LV) parameters measured by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging associated with VC progression. We studied 5,591 MESA participants free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Mean ± SD age was 62 ± 10 years; 53% women; 83% had no VC progression, 15% progressed at 1 site (AVC or MAC) and 3% at both sites. There were 251 incident HF over 15 years. After adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of HF associated with VC progression at 1 and 2 sites were 1.62 (1.21 to 2.17) and 1.88 (1.14 to 3.09), respectively, compared with no progression (p-for-trend