Design of a nonlinear model for the propagation of COVID-19 and its efficient nonstandard computational implementation

•Mathematical considerations of a SEIQR model to describe the propagation of COVID-19 are proposed.•We derive analytically the reproductive number and the equilibria with and without COVID-19.•Necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of the equilibria are mathematically established.•An...

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Veröffentlicht in:Applied Mathematical Modelling 2021-01, Vol.89, p.1835-1846
Hauptverfasser: Rafiq, Muhammad, Macías-Díaz, J.E., Raza, Ali, Ahmed, Nauman
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:•Mathematical considerations of a SEIQR model to describe the propagation of COVID-19 are proposed.•We derive analytically the reproductive number and the equilibria with and without COVID-19.•Necessary and sufficient conditions for the stability of the equilibria are mathematically established.•An efficient nonstandard method to solve the continuous problem is proposed and analyzed.•The numerical simulations confirm the analytical and numerical results derived in this work. In this manuscript, we develop a mathematical model to describe the spreading of an epidemic disease in a human population. The emphasis in this work will be on the study of the propagation of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Various epidemiologically relevant assumptions will be imposed upon the problem, and a coupled system of first-order ordinary differential equations will be obtained. The model adopts the form of a nonlinear susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered system, and we investigate it both analytically and numerically. Analytically, we obtain the equilibrium points in the presence and absence of the coronavirus. We also calculate the reproduction number and provide conditions that guarantee the local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibria. To that end, various tools from analysis will be employed, including Volterra-type Lyapunov functions, LaSalle’s invariance principle and the Routh–Hurwitz criterion. To simulate computationally the dynamics of propagation of the disease, we propose a nonstandard finite-difference scheme to approximate the solutions of the mathematical model. A thorough analysis of the discrete model is provided in this work, including the consistency and the stability analyses, along with the capability of the discrete model to preserve the equilibria of the continuous system. Among other interesting results, our numerical simulations confirm the stability properties of the equilibrium points.
ISSN:0307-904X
1088-8691
0307-904X
DOI:10.1016/j.apm.2020.08.082