A novel adaptive deep learning model of Covid-19 with focus on mortality reduction strategies

•Deep learning data-driven analytical model of Covid-19 pandemic to study disease transmission and prevention mechanism.•Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based adaptive incremental learning technique used for model parameter learning and model updating with evolving training data.•Simulation and stability analysis of different epidemic control strategies.•An effective strategy to minimize the number of deaths through controlled natural immunization in absence of availability of vaccination at mass level. We employ deep learning to propose an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based and data stream guided real-time incremental learning algorithm for parameter estimation of a non-intrusive, intelligent, adaptive and online analytical model of Covid-19 disease. Modeling and simulation of such problems pose an additional challenge of continuously evolving training data in which the model parameters change over time depending upon external factors. Our main contribution is that in a scenario of continuously evolving training data, unlike typical deep learning techniques, this non-intrusive algorithm eliminates the need to retrain or rebuild the model from scratch every time a new training data set is received. After validating the model, we use it to study the impact of different strategies for epidemic control. Finally, we propose and simulate a strategy of controlled natural immunization through risk-based population compartmentalization (PC) wherein the population is divided in Low Risk (LR) and High Risk (HR) compartments based on risk factors (like comorbidities and age) and subjected to different disease transmission dynamics by isolating the HR compartment while allowing the LR compartment to develop natural immunity. Upon release from the preventive isolation, the HR compartment finds itself surrounded by enough number of immunized individuals to prevent the spread of infection and thus most of the deaths occurring in this group are avoided.