Does adult height predict later mortality?: Comparative evidence from the Early Indicators samples in the United States

•First use of new historical data on black and urban veterans.•Significant U-shaped relationship between height and mortality for rural whites.•No height-mortality relationship is found for African Americans or Urban Whites.•Race, urbanization, and nativity strongly related to mortality at group level. In this paper, I supplement widely used demographic data on white veterans of the Union Army with large and newly collected data on blacks and urban white veterans to explore the question of whether adult height predicts late-life mortality at the individual level. The data are partitioned into four demographic groups based on individual characteristics at the time of enlistment: white veterans enlisting in rural areas, mid-size cities, and large cities, and African-American veterans of the U.S. Colored Troops (USCT). Across the three groups of white veterans, mean height is positively associated with life expectancy at age 60, while both mean height and life expectancy for black veterans are very close to levels measured among the highly urbanized white veterans. I examine whether these group-level differences are robust to individual-level analysis by estimating two types of models, separately for each group: 1) 10-year mortality at age 60 using a linear probability model with company-level fixed effects and 2) a Cox proportional hazard that tracks veterans from age 60 to death. For rural whites, I find a significant U-shaped relationship between height and 10-year mortality, with both the short and the tall at significantly higher risk of death. This pattern becomes more pronounced when excluding younger recruits (under aged 24) from the analysis. But this relationship does not extend to urban whites or to blacks, where no significant height effects are found, and in which the height-mortality relationship among the highest mortality groups (whites from the largest cities and blacks) appears to be a generally positive one. Overall, the robust positive relationship between height and life expectancy at the group level does not exist at the individual level.