Clinical Factors Associated with Mortality in Cirrhotic Patients Presenting with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Whether certain clinical or laboratory characteristics are able to differentiate cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeds (UGIB) at high-risk inpatient mortality is unknown. The objective of this study is to elucidate patient factors at presentation that are associated with in-hospital mortality. A retrospective analysis of cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB was performed. Baseline characteristics at admission including demographics, clinical and laboratory characteristics were collected. Factors associated with in-hospital mortality were evaluated with logistic regression analyses. The discriminative power of MELD score was evaluated with the use of area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. One hundred and sixteen patients were included in this study. MELD score at presentation was higher in the death cohort (24.0 versus 14.8, < 0.001) and remained significantly associated with mortality after multivariable adjustment ( < 0.001). ROC analysis of MELD score for death yielded an area under the curve of 0.88. At admission, the death group had lower systolic blood pressure (103 mmHg versus 123 mmHg, P=0.008 and more frequently presented with bright red blood per rectum (46.7% versus 11.9%, = 0.003). Bilirubin and international normalized ratio were also higher, and albumin was lower in patients who died. Among cirrhotic patients presenting with UGIB, the severity of symptoms and impairment in hepatic synthetic function is associated with in-hospital mortality. Admission MELD score may be useful in predicting in-hospital mortality.