Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the US: A prediction model for India in 2020

The effect of weather on COVID-19 spread is poorly understood. Recently, few studies have claimed that warm weather can possibly slowdown the global pandemic, which has already affected over 1.6 million people worldwide. Clarification of such relationships in the worst affected country, the US, can be immensely beneficial to understand the role of weather in transmission of the disease in the highly populated countries, such as India. We collected the daily data of new cases in 50 US states between Jan 1–Apr 9, 2020 and also the corresponding weather information (i.e., temperature (T) and absolute humidity (AH)). Distribution modeling of new cases across AH and T, helped identify the narrow and vulnerable AH range. We validated the results for 10-day intervals against monthly observations, and also worldwide trends. The results were used to predict Indian regions which would be vulnerable to weather based spread in upcoming months of 2020. COVID-19 spread in the US is significant for states with 4