Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019‐nCoV
Objectives To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV). Methods Based on the susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propa...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Journal of evidence-based medicine 2020-02, Vol.13 (1), p.3-7 |
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Hauptverfasser: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Zusammenfassung: | Objectives
To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV).
Methods
Based on the susceptible‐exposed‐infected‐removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019‐nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).
Results
The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real‐time reports on the number of 2019‐nCoV‐infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues.
Conclusions
The early transmission ability of 2019‐nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions. |
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ISSN: | 1756-5391 1756-5383 1756-5391 |
DOI: | 10.1111/jebm.12376 |