Determinants of Spontaneous Preterm Labor and Birth Including Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Periodontitis

Periodontitis is reported to be associated with preterm birth (spontaneous preterm labor and birth). Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is common during pregnancy and is expected to be related to periodontitis. However, little research has been done on the association among preterm birth, GERD and periodontitis. This study uses popular machine learning methods for analyzing preterm birth, GERD and periodontitis. Data came from Anam Hospital in Seoul, Korea, with 731 obstetric patients during January 5, 1995 - August 28, 2018. Six machine learning methods were applied and compared for the prediction of preterm birth. Variable importance, the effect of a variable on model performance, was used for identifying major determinants of preterm birth. In terms of accuracy, the random forest (0.8681) was similar with logistic regression (0.8736). Based on variable importance from the random forest, major determinants of preterm birth are delivery and pregestational body mass indexes (BMI) (0.1426 and 0.1215), age (0.1211), parity (0.0868), predelivery systolic and diastolic blood pressure (0.0809 and 0.0763), twin (0.0476), education (0.0332) as well as infant sex (0.0331), prior preterm birth (0.0290), progesterone medication history (0.0279), upper gastrointestinal tract symptom (0.0274), GERD (0.0242), (0.0151), region (0.0139), calcium-channel-blocker medication history (0.0135) and gestational diabetes mellitus (0.0130). Periodontitis ranked 22nd (0.0084). GERD is more important than periodontitis for predicting and preventing preterm birth. For preventing preterm birth, preventive measures for hypertension, GERD and diabetes mellitus would be needed alongside the promotion of effective BMI management and appropriate progesterone and calcium-channel-blocker medications.