Development and Validation of the Personalized Sexual Health Promotion (SexPro) HIV Risk Prediction Model for Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States

Accurate HIV risk assessment among men who have sex with men (MSM) is important to help providers assess risk, and target HIV prevention interventions. We sought to develop an evidence-based HIV risk assessment tool for US MSM that is inclusive of Black MSM. Data from four large longitudinal cohorts of MSM were used to develop (EXPLORE), and validate (VAX004, HPTN061, and HVTN505). These data included visits in which participants self-reported HIV risk behavior and underwent HIV testing. We developed a pooled logistic model for incident HIV infection based on self-reported risk behaviors during the 6 months before each study visit. A total of 4069 MSM were used for the development cohort, and 8047 MSM in the three validation cohorts through 2013. The final model includes age (