Epidemiological impact and cost‐effectiveness of providing long‐acting pre‐exposure prophylaxis to injectable contraceptive users for HIV prevention in South Africa: a modelling study

Introduction Although pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP.) is an efficacious HIV prevention strategy, its preventive benefit has not been shown among young women in sub‐Saharan Africa, likely due to non‐adherence. Adherence may be improved with the use of injectable long‐acting PrEP methods currently being developed. We hypothesize that providing long‐acting PrEP to women using injectable contraceptives, the most frequently used contraceptive method in South Africa, could improve adherence to PrEP, result in a reduction of new HIV infections, and be a relatively easy‐to‐reach target population. In this modelling study, we assessed the epidemiological impact and cost‐effectiveness of providing long‐acting PrEP to injectable contraceptive users in Limpopo, South Africa. Methods We developed a deterministic mathematical model calibrated to the HIV epidemic in Limpopo. Long‐acting PrEP was provided to 50% of HIV negative injectable contraceptive users in 2018 and scaled‐up over two years. We estimated the number of HIV infections that could be averted by 2030 and the drug price of long‐acting PrEP for which this intervention would be cost‐effective over a time horizon of 40 years, from a healthcare payer perspective. In the base‐case scenario we assumed long‐acting PrEP is 75% effective in preventing HIV infections and 85% of infected individuals are on antiretroviral drug therapy (ART) by 2030. In sensitivity analyses we adjusted PrEP effectiveness and ART coverage. Costs between $519 and $1119 per disability‐adjusted life‐year (DALY) averted were considered potentially cost‐effective, and