Feasibility of lung cancer prediction from low-dose CT scan and smoking factors using causal models

IntroductionLow-dose CT (LDCT) is currently used in lung cancer screening of high-risk populations for early lung cancer diagnosis. However, 96% of individuals with detected nodules are false positives.MethodsIn order to develop an efficient early lung cancer predictor from clinical, demographic and LDCT features, we studied a total of 218 subjects with lung cancer or benign nodules. Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) were used to integrate demographics, clinical data and LDCT features from 92 subjects (training cohort) from the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study cohort.ResultsLearnt PGMs identified three variables directly (causally) linked to malignant nodules and the largest benign nodule and used them to build the Lung Cancer Causal Model (LCCM), which was validated in a separate cohort of 126 subjects. Nodule and vessel numbers and years since the subject quit smoking were sufficient to discriminate malignant from benign nodules. Comparison with existing predictors in the training and validation cohorts showed that (1) incorporating LDCT scan features greatly enhances predictive accuracy; and (2) LCCM improves cancer detection over existing methods, including the Brock parsimonious model (p