Pretest probability for patients with suspected obstructive coronary artery disease: re-evaluating Diamond–Forrester for the contemporary era and clinical implications: insights from the PROMISE trial

Abstract Aims To update pretest probabilities (PTP) for obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD ≥ 50%) across age, sex, and clinical symptom strata, using coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) in a large contemporary population of patients with stable chest pain referred to non-invasive testing. Methods and results We included patients enrolled in the Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain (PROMISE) trial and randomized to CTA. Exclusively level III-certified readers, blinded to demographic and clinical data, assessed the prevalence of CAD ≥ 50% in a central core lab. After comparing the recent European Society of Cardiology-Diamond and Forrester PTP (ESC-DF) with the actual observed prevalence of CAD ≥ 50%, we created a new PTP set by replacing the ESC-DF PTP with the observed prevalence of CAD ≥ 50% across strata of age, sex, and type of angina. In 4415 patients (48.3% men; 60.5 ± 8.2 years; 78% atypical angina; 11% typical angina; 11% non-anginal chest pain), the observed prevalence of CAD ≥ 50% was 13.9%, only one-third of the average ESC-DF PTP (40.6; P