A decision tree-based prediction model for fluorescence in situ hybridization HER2 gene status in HER2 immunohistochemistry-2+ breast cancers: a 2538-case multicenter study on consecutive surgical specimens

To investigate the proportion of gene amplifications and the association between the HER2-IHC-staining pattern and gene status in IHC-2+ breast cancers according to 2013 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO)/College of American Pathologists (CAP) guidelines. We retrospectively analyzed and re-evaluated the IHC-staining pattern of 2538 IHC-2+ surgical specimens of breast cancer from November 2014 to October 2015 in 12 institutions. All cases used for building a prediction model of gene amplification according to the IHC-staining pattern and were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1914) or validation set (n = 624). The overall fluorescence hybridization (FISH) amplification, non-amplification and equivocation rates in HER2 IHC-2+ cases were 17.8%, 76.2% and 6.0%, respectively. In the training set, cases that had ≤ 10% of cells with intense, complete and circumferential membrane staining or had > 85% of cells with complete membrane staining of any staining intensity tended to be gene amplified (77.0% and 60.5%, respectively). And cases with weak and incomplete membrane staining had the lowest amplification rate of 6.1%. The prediction model was constructed based on IHC-staining pattern in the training set and validated using a validation set. The positive and negative prediction values were 51.6% and 79.2%, respectively, in the validation set. Moreover, the copy number per cell was much higher in cases with amplification-associated staining patterns (7.84 and 8.75) than in cases with non-amplification-associated staining patterns (2.97 to 4.41, < 0.05). In HER2 IHC-2+ breast cancers, the staining pattern is associated with the gene status. This finding is compatible with recommendations of 2013 ASCO/CAP guidelines.