Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study

Estimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000–500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths u...

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Veröffentlicht in:	The Lancet (British edition) 2018-03, Vol.391 (10127), p.1285-1300
Hauptverfasser:	Iuliano, A Danielle, Roguski, Katherine M, Chang, Howard H, Muscatello, David J, Cohen, Cheryl, Schanzer, Dena, Cowling, Benjamin J, Wu, Peng, Kyncl, Jan, Ang, Li Wei, Park, Minah, Redlberger-Fritz, Monika, Yu, Hongjie, Espenhain, Laura, Krishnan, Anand, Emukule, Gideon, van Asten, Liselotte, Pereira da Silva, Susana, Aungkulanon, Suchunya, Buchholz, Udo, Widdowson, Marc-Alain, Bresee, Joseph S, Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo, Cheng, Po-Yung, Dawood, Fatimah, Foppa, Ivo, Haber, Michael, MacIntyre, C Raina, Wood, James G, Kundi, Michael, Popow-Kraupp, Therese, Ahmed, Makhdum, Rahman, Mahmudur, Marinho, Fatima, Sotomayor Proschle, C Viviana, Vergara Mallegas, Natalia, Luzhao, Feng, Sa, Li, Barbosa-Ramírez, Juliana, Gomez, Leandra Abarca, Acosta Herrera, aBetsy, Llanés, María Josefa, Mølbak, Kåre, Nielsen, Jens, Trebbien, Ramona, Bruno, Alfredo, Ramos, Hector, an der Heiden, Matthias, del Carmen Castillo Signor, Leticia, Serrano, Carlos Enrique, Bhardwaj, Rohit, Chadha, Mandeep, Narayan, Venkatesh, Bromberg, Michal, Oishi, Kazunori, Nyawanda, Bryan, Matus, Cuitláhuac Ruiz, Corona, Maria Eugenia Jimenez, Burmaa, Alexander, Darmaa, Oyungerel, Cherkaoui, Imad, van den Wijngaard, Cees C, van der Hoek, Wim, Baker, Michael, Bandaranayake, Don, Huang, Sue, Grøneng, Gry M, Hauge, Siri, de Moltó, Yadira, Cabello, Maria Agueda, von Horoch, Marta, Medina Osis, Jose, Machado, Ausenda, Nunes, Baltazar, Rodrigues, Ana Paula, Lupulescu, Emilia, Popescu, Rodica, Popovici, Odette, Bogdanovic, Dragan, Lazarevic, Konstansa, Tiodorovic, Branislav, Chen, Mark, Cutter, Jeffery, Lee, Vernon, Lin, Raymond, Ma, Stefan, Cohen, Adam L, Kim, Woo Joo, Larrauri, Amparo, León, Inmaculada León, Junker, Christoph, Koch, Daniel, Huang, Wan-Ting, Kuo, Hung-Wei, Tsai, Yi-Chen, Bundhamcharoen, Kanitta, Green, Helen K, Pebody, Richard, Goñi, Natalia, Mustaquim, Desiree
Format:	Artikel
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	Adolescent Adult Age Age groups Aged Child Child, Preschool Children Death Decision making Division Estimates Fatalities Female Global health Global Health - statistics & numerical data Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Infections Influenza Influenza, Human - complications Influenza, Human - mortality Linear Models Low income groups Male Middle Aged Mortality Orthomyxoviridae Pandemics Pneumonia Population Public health Regression analysis Regression models Seasons Socioeconomic Factors Viral infections Viruses Young Adult
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Zusammenfassung:	Estimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000–500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths using country-specific influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates from 1999–2015. We estimated country-specific influenza-associated respiratory excess mortality rates (EMR) for 33 countries using time series log-linear regression models with vital death records and influenza surveillance data. To extrapolate estimates to countries without data, we divided countries into three analytic divisions for three age groups (
ISSN:	0140-6736 1474-547X
DOI:	10.1016/S0140-6736(17)33293-2