Predictive Model for Permanent Shunting in Cryptococcal meningitis

Cryptococcal meningitis may have long-term morbidity and requires a permanent cerebrospinal fluid shunt. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and create a predictive model for permanent shunt treatment in cryptococcal meningitis patients. This was a retrospective analytical study conducted at Khon Kaen University. The study period was from January 2005 to December 2015. We enrolled all adult patients diagnosed with cryptococcal meningitis. Risk factors predictive for permanent shunting treatment were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. There were 341 patients diagnosed with cryptococcal meningitis. Of those, 64 patients (18.7%) were treated with permanent shunts. There were three independent factors associated with permanent shunt treatment. The presence of hydrocephalus had the highest adjusted odds ratio at 56.77. The resulting predictive model for permanent shunt treatment (y) is (-3.85) + (4.04 × hydrocephalus) + (2.13 × initial cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) opening pressure (OP) > 25 cm H O) + (1.87 × non-human immune deficiency vrus (HIV)). In conclusion, non-HIV status, initial CSF OP greater than or equal to 25 cm H O, and the presence of hydrocephalus are indicators of the future necessity for permanent shunt therapy.