Patient‐specific parameter estimation in single‐ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision‐making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time‐dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non‐invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi‐level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub‐model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single‐ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Lumped parameter models can simulate complex hemodynamic phenomena with surprising realism, but their utility is maximized if one can robustly identify patient specific parameters and predict clinically relevant indicators that are otherwise difficult to measure. We investigate parameter identifiability using both local and global metrics on simplified and full circulation models under virtual and real patient data. A multi‐level estimation approach based on adaptive multi‐chain Monte Carlo is also proposed, leading to improved parameter learning in patients with Nor