Timed walk as primary outcome measure of treatment response in clinical trials for HTLV-1-associated myelopathy: a feasibility study

To advance the treatment of HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP), randomised controlled therapeutic studies with appropriate and sensitive outcomes are reuired. One candidate outcome is the 10-metre walk test (10MWT), a patient-centred, simple and functional measure. To calculate sample size based on 10MWT as the primary outcome, variability within and between subjects must be known. Data on 10MWT from 76 patients with HAM/TSP were prospectively collected from four specialist centres in Brazil, Japan, USA and UK. Data, collected at two time points, 6 months apart, were log transformed and subjected to analysis of covariance. Baseline mean (standard deviation = SD), median 10MWT were 23.5 (18.9), 16.3 s/10 m and at 6 months 24.9 (23.9), 16.4 s/10 m. The mean (SD) % increase in walk time was 5.74 % (28.2 %). After logarithmic transformation, the linear correlation between baseline and 24 weeks 10MWT was = 0.938. Using these data, it was determined that a randomised controlled trial with 30 participants per group would have 90 % power to detect a 19 % decrease or a 23 % increase in 10MWT. The intra-patient variability of 10MWT is relatively small in HAM/TSP over 6 months. 10MWT is a feasible outcome measure for a clinical trial in HAM/TSP. To our knowledge, this is the first ever recommendation for the sample size required for trials in HAM/TSP patients.