The impact of the affordable care Act (ACA) on favorable risk selection and Beneficiaries' health status in Medicare advantage: a preliminary assessment

In response to increasing fiscal pressures, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) sought to reduce Medicare Advantage plan expenses by restructuring the bidding and payment processes. The purpose of this study is to assess the effects of the ACA's payment freeze and restructuring of the bidding and payment processes on favorable risk selection in Medicare Advantage plan enrollment (objective 1) and changes in the health status of beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans over time (objective 2). We used the Medicare Health Outcome Survey baseline data (2007→2013) for analyses of the first objective (7 cohorts, 1.7 million beneficiaries) and the linked baseline and follow-up data (2007-2009→2011-2013) for analyses of the second objective (5 cohorts, 0.5 million beneficiaries). To examine favorable risk selection we used the following outcomes: self-rated health, falls, balance problems, falls management, frailty, and morbidity. To examine changes in beneficiary health status over time, we examined changes (over time) in these same outcomes. The focal independent variable is the policy implementation measure, which is time dependent and measures the accumulation of changes to Medicare Advantage payment policies resulting from the ACA. Multiple regression models were developed to examine the relationship between ACA implementation and outcomes of interest. In terms of favorable selection, individuals enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans post-ACA have, on average, better self-rated health (b = 0.003, p