Baseline factors predicting the risk of conversion from ocular hypertension to primary open-angle glaucoma during a 10-year follow-up

Purpose To evaluate the ability of baseline clinical, morphological, and functional factors to predict the conversion to primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) in ocular hypertensive (OHT) patients. Methods This single-center prospective longitudinal observational study included 116 eyes of 116 OHT patients followed for a 10-year period. All patients had intraocular pressure (IOP) ≥24 mm Hg in one eye and >21 mm Hg in the other eye, normal visual fields (VFs) and normal optic disc (OD) appearance in both eyes at baseline. All OHT patients were untreated at baseline with subsequent treatment upon need according to clinical judgement. Only one eye per subject was randomly selected. Patient age, gender, IOP, central corneal thickness (CCT), and ibopamine test results were collected at baseline. All patients underwent standard automated perimetry, short-wavelength automated perimetry (SWAP), frequency-doubling technology, confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (CSLO), and scanning laser polarimetry (SLP) at baseline and every 6 months thereafter. Main outcome measure was the conversion to POAG, defined as the development of reproducible VF and/or OD abnormalities attributable to glaucoma. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the baseline factors predictive of POAG conversion. Results During the 10-year follow-up, 25% of eyes converted to POAG. In multivariate Cox models, baseline factors that were significant predictors of POAG development included: older age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.0, 99% confidence intervals (CIs) 1.0–1.2, per 1 year older); SWAP Glaucoma Hemifield test ‘outside normal limits’ (HR 4.3, 99% CIs 1.2–17.9); greater SLP ‘Inter-eye Symmetry’ (HR 1.1, 99% CIs 0.4–3.0, per 1 unit lower); lower CSLO Rim Volume (HR 1.1, 99% CIs 0.3–3.2, per 0.1 mm 3 lower); and greater CSLO cup-to-disc ratio (HR 6.0, 99% CIs 3.6–16.8, per 0.1 unit greater). Conclusions The baseline parameters that proved to be useful in assessing the likelihood of an OHT patient to develop POAG included age, functional variables provided by SWAP, and structural variables provided by SLP and CSLO. In this cohort of patients, baseline IOP, CCT, and ibopamine provocative test results were not significant predictors of POAG conversion.