Detecting spatial-temporal cluster of hand foot and mouth disease in Beijing, China, 2009-2014

The incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is extremely high, and has constituted a huge disease burden throughout Beijing in recent years. This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemic characteristics of HFMD. Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the data and estimate the epidemic peaks in 2009-2014. Space-time scanning detected spatiotemporal clusters and identified high-risk locations. Global and local Moran's I statistics were used to measure the spatial autocorrelation. Geocoding was performed in ArcGIS, based on the present address codes of the patients and the centroids of the towns. Maps were created in ArcGIS to show the geographic spread of HFMD. In total, 220,451probable cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing between January 2009 and December 2014: 12,749 (5.78 %) were laboratory confirmed, and 35 (0.02 %) were fatal. The median age of reported cases was 3.12 years (interquartile range 1.96-4.39). Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), enterovirus 71 (EV-A71), and other enteroviruses accounted for 39.31, 35.36, and 25.33 % of the 12,749 confirmed cases, respectively. Many more severe cases were caused by EV-A71 (χ (2) = 186.41, df = 1, P