Establishing pathological cut-offs of brain atrophy rates in multiple sclerosis

ObjectiveTo assess whether it is feasible to establish specific cut-off values able to discriminate ‘physiological’ or ‘pathological’ brain volume rates in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS).MethodsThe study was based on the analysis of longitudinal MRI data sets of patients with MS (n=206, 87% relapsing–remitting, 7% secondary progressive and 6% primary progressive) and healthy controls (HC; n=35). Brain atrophy rates were computed over a mean follow-up of 7.5 years (range 1–12) for patients with MS and 6.3 years (range 1–12.5) for HC with the SIENA software and expressed as annualised per cent brain volume change (PBVC/y). A weighted (on the follow-up length) receiver operating characteristic analysis and the area under the curve (AUC) were used for statistics.ResultsThe weighted PBVC/y was −0.51±0.27% in patients with MS and −0.27±0.15% in HC (p