Alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin at twenty-four weeks after interferon-based therapy predict hepatocellular carcinoma development

AIM: To investigate risk factors for development of hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) in patients with hepatitis C virus-related liver cirrhosis(LC-C).METHODS: To evaluate the relationship between clinical factors including virological response and the development of HCC in patients with LC-C treated with interferon(IFN) and ribavirin, we conducted a multicenter, retrospective study in 14 hospitals in Japan. All patients had compensated LC-C with clinical or histological data available. HCC was diagnosed by the presence of typical hypervascular characteristics on computed tomography and/or magnetic resonance imaging.RESULTS: HCC was diagnosis in 50(21.6%) of 231 LC-C patients during a median observation period of 3.8 years after IFN and ribavirin therapy. Patients who developed HCC were older(P = 0.018) and had higher serum levels of pretreatment alpha-fetoprotein(AFP)(P = 0.038). Multivariate analysis revealed the following independent risk factors for HCC development: history of treatment for HCC [P < 0.001, odds ratio(OR) = 15.27, 95%CI: 4.98-59.51], AFP levels of ≥ 10 ng/m L(P = 0.009, OR = 3.89, 95%CI: 1.38-11.94), and des-γ-carboxy prothrombin(DCP) levels of ≥ 40 m AU/mL at 24 wk after the completion of IFN and ribavirin therapy(P < 0.001, OR = 24.43, 95%CI: 4.11-238.67).CONCLUSION: We suggested that the elevation of AFP and DCP levels at 24 wk after the completion of IFN and ribavirin therapy were strongly associated with the incidence of HCC irrespective of virological response among Japanese LC-C patients.