Risk factors for lumbar intervertebral disc height narrowing: a population-based longitudinal study in the elderly

The progression of disc degeneration is generally believed to be associated with low back pain and/or degenerative lumbar diseases, especially in the elderly. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate changes in lumbar disc height using radiographic measurements and to investigate risk factors for development of disc height narrowing of the elderly. From 1997 to 2007, 197 village inhabitants at least 65 years-old who participated in baseline examinations and more than four follow-up examinations conducted every second year were chosen as subjects for this study. Using lateral lumbar spine radiographs of each subject, L1-L2 to L5-S1 disc heights were measured. The subjects were divided into two groups according to the rate of change in disc height: mildly decreased (≤20 % decrease) and severely decreased (>20 % decrease). A stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis was used to select those factors significantly associated with disc height narrowing. Disc height at each intervertebral disc (IVD) level decreased gradually over ten years (p