Prediction of Juvenile-Onset Myopia

IMPORTANCE: Myopia (nearsightedness) has its onset in childhood and affects about one-third of adults in the United States. Along with its high prevalence, myopia is expensive to correct and is associated with ocular diseases that include glaucoma and retinal detachment. OBJECTIVE: To determine the best set of predictors for myopia onset in school-aged children. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Ethnicity and Refractive Error (CLEERE) Study was an observational cohort study of ocular development and myopia onset conducted at 5 clinical sites from September 1, 1989, through May 22, 2010. Data were collected from 4512 ethnically diverse, nonmyopic school-aged children from grades 1 through 8 (baseline grades 1 through 6) (ages 6 through 13 years [baseline, 6 through 11 years]). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We evaluated 13 candidate risk factors for their ability to predict the onset of myopia. Myopia onset was defined as −0.75 diopters or more of myopia in each principal meridian in the right eye as measured by cycloplegic autorefraction at any visit after baseline until grade 8 (age 13 years). We evaluated risk factors using odds ratios from discrete time survival analysis, the area under the curve, and cross validation. RESULTS: A total of 414 children became myopic from grades 2 through 8 (ages 7 through 13 years). Of the 13 factors evaluated, 10 were associated with the risk for myopia onset (P