The prognostic value of the head-shaft angle on hip displacement in children with cerebral palsy

Background Hip displacement is the second most common deformity in cerebral palsy (CP). The risk for hip displacement is related to the Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS). Recently, the head-shaft angle (HSA) has been identified as a predictor for hip displacement and the aim of this study is to assess the predictive value of the HSA for hip displacement in CP. Methods In this retrospective cohort, we performed radiological measurements in 50 children on both hips. In children with GMFCS level II (30 hips), III (30 hips), IV (20 hips) and V (20 hips), we measured the HSA and migration percentage (MP) in three age intervals: age two years (T1), age four years (T2) and age seven years (T3). Results At T1, the HSA was larger (more valgus) in hips that will displace than in hips that will not displace (174° vs. 166°; p = 0.001) and was also larger in higher GMFCS levels (IV–V vs. II–III) (172° vs. 165°; p < 0.001). At T1, GMFCS [odds ratio (OR) 14.7; p = 0.001] and HSA (OR 1.102; p = 0.043) were predictors for hip displacement at T3, but at T2, MP (OR 1.071; p = 0.010) was the only predictor for hip displacement at T3. Conclusions The HSA at two years is larger in hips that will displace and larger in children with higher GMFCS levels (IV–V). At age two years, GMFCS and HSA are valuable predictors for hip displacement, but at the age of four years, only MP should be used in the prediction of hip displacement. Level of evidence Prognostic study, level II.