Forecasting the Effects of Obesity and Smoking on U.S. Life Expectancy

Using data from U.S. national surveys, the authors forecast that the adverse effect of increases in obesity on the nation's health over the next decade will exceed the benefits of declines in smoking. They estimate that the elimination of smoking and obesity by 2020 would increase the average life expectancy at the age of 18 by almost 4 years. The authors forecast that the adverse effect of increases in obesity on the nation's health over the next decade will exceed the benefits of declines in smoking. Trends in behavioral risk factors can have a profound effect on population health. 1 , 2 Estimates suggest that obesity accounts for 5 to 15% of deaths each year in the United States 2 – 5 and smoking for 18%. 1 Eliminating smoking could increase population life expectancy by as much as 1 to 2 years. 6 , 7 In contrast, if obesity rates continue to grow as they have historically, a leveling off, or even a reversal, of past life expectancy trends has been predicted. 8 In addition to their effect on mortality, obesity and smoking affect quality of life. 9 – 14 Smoking is a major risk factor . . .