West African Ebola Epidemic after One Year — Slowing but Not Yet under Control

Despite efforts to control the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa, substantial transmission continues. As we reach the 1-year anniversary of the first known case from this outbreak, the WHO team updates the progress in controlling the epidemic. To the Editor: During the period from early June to mid-September 2014, the epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone grew exponentially, with national doubling times of between 16 and 30 days. 1 On the basis of case reports through mid-September, and assuming no change in the trajectory of the epidemic, we predicted a cumulative total of 21,000 cases in these three countries by November 2. 1 In fact, the epidemic did change course in September: the increase in case incidence appears to have halted in Guinea and Sierra Leone and has reversed in Liberia (Figure 1). . . .