Seasonal variation in penicillin use in Mexico and Brazil: analysis of the impact of over-the-counter restrictions

During 2010, Mexico and Brazil implemented policies to enforce existing laws of restricting over-the-counter sales of antibiotics. We determined if the enforcement led to more appropriate antibiotic use by measuring changes in seasonal variation of penicillin use. We used retail quarterly sales data in defined daily doses per 1,000 inhabitant-days (DDD/TID) from IMS Health from the private sector in Mexico and Brazil from the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2013. This database contains information on volume of antibiotics sold in retail pharmacies using information from wholesalers. We used interrupted time-series models controlling for external factors with the use of antihypertensives with interaction terms to assess changes in trend, level, and variation in use between quarters for total penicillin use and by active substance. The most used penicillin was amoxicillin, followed by amoxicillin-clavulanic acid and ampicillin (minimal use in Brazil). Before the restrictions, the seasonal variation in penicillin use was 1.1 DDD/TID in Mexico and 0.8 DDD/TID in Brazil. In Mexico, we estimated a significant decrease in the seasonal variation of 0.4 DDD/TID after the restriction, mainly due to changes in seasonal variation of amoxicillin and ampicillin. In Brazil, the seasonal variation did not change significantly, overall and in the breakdown by individual active substances. For Mexico, inappropriate penicillin use may have diminished after the restrictions were enforced. For Brazil, increasing use and no change in seasonal variation suggest that further efforts are needed to reduce inappropriate penicillin use.