Evaluation of a 30-Gene Paclitaxel, Fluorouracil, Doxorubicin, and Cyclophosphamide Chemotherapy Response Predictor in a Multicenter Randomized Trial in Breast Cancer

We examined in a prospective, randomized, international clinical trial the performance of a previously defined 30-gene predictor (DLDA-30) of pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative weekly paclitaxel and fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide (T/FAC) chemotherapy, and assessed if DLDA-30 also predicts increased sensitivity to FAC-only chemotherapy. We compared the pCR rates after T/FAC versus FACx6 preoperative chemotherapy. We also did an exploratory analysis to identify novel candidate genes that differentially predict response in the two treatment arms. Two hundred and seventy-three patients were randomly assigned to receive either weekly paclitaxel × 12 followed by FAC × 4 (T/FAC, n = 138), or FAC × 6 (n = 135) neoadjuvant chemotherapy. All patients underwent a pretreatment fine-needle aspiration biopsy of the tumor for gene expression profiling and treatment response prediction. The pCR rates were 19% and 9% in the T/FAC and FAC arms, respectively (P < 0.05). In the T/FAC arm, the positive predictive value (PPV) of the genomic predictor was 38% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 21-56%], the negative predictive value was 88% (95% CI, 77-95%), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.711. In the FAC arm, the PPV was 9% (95% CI, 1-29%) and the AUC was 0.584. This suggests that the genomic predictor may have regimen specificity. Its performance was similar to a clinical variable-based predictor nomogram. Gene expression profiling for prospective response prediction was feasible in this international trial. The 30-gene predictor can identify patients with greater than average sensitivity to T/FAC chemotherapy. However, it captured molecular equivalents of clinical phenotype. Next-generation predictive markers will need to be developed separately for different molecular subsets of breast cancers.