A preoperative predictive score of pancreatic fistula following pancreatoduodenectomy

Abstract Background Various factors are related to the occurrence of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD). Some of the strongest are identified intra- or postoperatively, which limits their utility in predicting this complication. The preoperative prediction of POPF permits an individualized approach to patient consent and selection, and may influence postoperative management. This study sought to develop and test a score to predict POPF. Methods A post hoc analysis of a prospectively maintained database was conducted. Consecutive patients were randomly selected to modelling and validation sets at a ratio of 2 : 1, respectively. Patient data, preoperative blood tests and physical characteristics of the gland (assessed from preoperative computed tomography images) were subjected to univariate and multivariate analysis in the modelling set of patients. A score predictive of POPF was designed and tested in the validation set. Results Postoperative pancreatic fistula occurred in 77 of 325 (23.7%) patients. The occurrence of POPF was associated with 12 factors. On multivariate analysis, body mass index and pancreatic duct width were independently associated with POPF. A risk score to predict POPF was designed (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.832, 95% confidence interval 0.768–0.897; P < 0.001) and successfully tested upon the validation set. Conclusions Preoperative assessment of a patient's risk for POPF is possible using simple measurements. The present risk score is a valid tool with which to predict POPF in patients undergoing PD.