Childhood Risk Factors for Young Adult Substance Dependence Outcome in Offspring from Multiplex Alcohol Dependence Families: A Prospective Study

Background Age of onset to begin drinking is a known risk factor for alcohol dependence. Factors have been identified that contribute to age of onset to begin regular drinking. These include reduced P300, increased postural sway, and personality variation. A longitudinal study spanning childhood to young adulthood provided the opportunity to determine if these same factors would predict the presence and onset of substance use disorders (SUD). Methods Multiplex families were identified through two or more alcohol-dependent brothers. Offspring from these multiplex or control families ( n = 133) were followed annually during childhood. Using childhood predictors previously identified as risk factors for age of onset to begin drinking, SUD outcome by young adulthood was modeled. Results Familial risk status was a significant predictor of young adult SUD outcome as a main effect and as an interaction with P300 amplitude recorded before the age of 13. In adolescence (age 15), increased postural sway and familial risk predicted the SUD outcome by age 22. Analysis comparing the presence of one or both risk factors showed that those above the median for sway and below the median for P300 amplitude had substantially increased odds of developing SUD (odds ratio = 8.08 [confidence interval = 1.52–42.83]). Conclusions Our findings indicate that among the factors predicting age of onset to begin regular drinking, P300 predicts SUD outcome across an 11-year span. The present findings provide the longest follow-up to date demonstrating that neurobiological factors in childhood are among the most salient predictors of young adult SUD outcome.