High-sensitivity ST2 for prediction of adverse outcomes in chronic heart failure

Soluble ST2 reflects activity of an interleukin-33-dependent cardioprotective signaling axis and is a diagnostic and prognostic marker in acute heart failure. The use of ST2 in chronic heart failure has not been well defined. Our objective was to determine whether plasma ST2 levels predict adverse outcomes in chronic heart failure in the context of current approaches. We determined the association between ST2 level and risk of death or transplantation in a multicenter, prospective cohort of 1141 chronic heart failure outpatients. Adjusted Cox models, receiver operating characteristic analyses, and risk reclassification metrics were used to assess the value of ST2 in predicting risk beyond currently used factors. After a median of 2.8 years, 267 patients (23%) died or underwent heart transplantation. Patients in the highest ST2 tertile (ST2 >36.3 ng/mL) had a markedly increased risk of adverse outcomes compared with the lowest tertile (ST2 ≤22.3 ng/mL), with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 3.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2 to 4.7; P