Predicting the future development of depression or PTSD after injury

Abstract Objective The objective was to develop a predictive screener that when given soon after injury will accurately differentiate those who will later develop depression or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) from those who will not. Method This study used a prospective, longitudinal cohort design. Subjects were randomly selected from all injured patients in the emergency department; the majority was assessed within 1 week postinjury with a short predictive screener, followed with in-person interviews after 3 and 6 months to determine the emergence of depression or PTSD within 6 months after injury. Results A total of 192 completed a risk factor survey at baseline; 165 were assessed over 6 months. Twenty-six subjects [15.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 10.2–21.3] were diagnosed with depression, four (2.4%, 95% CI 0.7–5.9) with PTSD and one with both. The final eight-item predictive screener was derived; optimal cutoff scores were ≥2 (of 4) depression risk items and ≥3 (of 5) PTSD risk items. The final screener demonstrated excellent sensitivity and moderate specificity both for clinically significant symptoms and for the diagnoses of depression and PTSD. Conclusions A simple screener that can help identify those patients at highest risk for future development of PTSD and depression postinjury allows the judicious allocation of costly mental health resources.