Predictor model of root caries in older adults: reporting of evidence to the translational evidence mechanism

Compared to younger adults, older adults are at greater risk for root caries. A model of root caries may assist dentists in predicting disease outcomes. Using the Iowa 65+ Oral Health Survey, analysis was done to model the patterns of the root caries development in older adults. The statistical analysis included Markov chain modeling, model estimation and validation. The model effectively predicts root caries using an 18-month predictive cycle and is validated up to 36 months (two cycles), with no significant differences (Chi-square test p-values >0.1) between predicted and observed distributions. However, we do not have observed data for validation beyond 36 months since the model was designed to perform only at single or multiple 18-month cycles. As expected, the predicted distribution at 54-month (3 cycles) and the observed distribution at 60-month differed significantly (p