Time-Series Analysis of Mortality Effects of Fine Particulate Matter Components in Detroit and Seattle

Recent toxicological and epidemiological studies have shown associations between particulate matter (PM) and adverse health effects, but which PM components are most influential is less well known. In this study, we used time-series analyses to determine the associations between daily fine PM [PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] concentrations and daily mortality in two U.S. cities-Seattle, Washington, and Detroit, Michigan. We obtained daily PM2.5 filters for the years of 2002-2004 and analyzed trace elements using X-ray fluorescence and black carbon using light reflectance as a surrogate measure of elemental carbon. We used Poisson regression and distributed lag models to estimate excess deaths for all causes and for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases adjusting for time-varying covariates. We computed the excess risks for interquartile range increases of each pollutant at lags of 0 through 3 days for both warm and cold seasons. The cardiovascular and respiratory mortality series exhibited different source and seasonal patterns in each city. The PM2.5 components and gaseous pollutants associated with mortality in Detroit were most associated with warm season secondary aerosols and traffic markers. In Seattle, the component species most closely associated with mortality included those for cold season traffic and other combustion sources, such as residual oil and wood burning. The effects of PM2.5 on daily mortality vary with source, season, and locale, consistent with the hypothesis that PM composition has an appreciable influence on the health effects attributable to PM.