High and Low Cognitive Risk for Depression: Stability from Late Adolescence to Early Adulthood

Negative cognitive styles are an important cognitive vulnerability for depression, but stability of high cognitive risk, once developed, is unclear. The current study examined stability of cognitive vulnerability to depression in individuals at high and low cognitive risk (extreme scores on both the CSQ and DAS) over a 7-year period from late adolescence through early adulthood. Cognitive vulnerability showed high relative stability, as evidenced by the moderate to high correlation ( r s = 0.62) between cognitive risk status at study onset and at final assessment 7 years later. Consistent with stability, subgroups were identified using growth mixture modeling, and most cognitively high-risk (62.22% for CSQ, 68.89% for DAS) and low-risk (55.05% for CSQ, 57.96% for DAS) participants showed stable trajectories of cognitive vulnerability. Despite this overall pattern of stability, small mean group changes were found, and a minority of participants showed changing trajectories, consistent with regression toward the mean. Predictors of change and implications for risk for depression in high- and low-risk individuals are discussed.