Diagnostic testing revisited: pathways through uncertainty

To aid physicians who may be having difficulty applying the principles of decision analysis to diagnostic data according to the methods published in the past several years, the authors of this paper set out a few principles and schemes for using and interpreting diagnostic data obtained from dichotomous tests. They also present a simple BASIC program for calculating post-test probabilities from likelihood ratios and pretest probabilities that a particular disease is present in a particular patient; the program can be adapted for use on microcomputers.