The association of circulating fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with incident heart failure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) levels are often elevated in heart failure (HF), although this has not been assessed using a longitudinal study design. Therefore, we investigated the association between baseline plasma FGF21 levels and incident HF in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). A total of 5408 participants, free of clinically apparent cardiovascular disease, were included in the analysis, of which 342 developed HF over a median follow-up period of 16.7 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed and the additive value of FGF21 in the performance of risk prediction over other well-established cardiovascular biomarkers was assessed. The mean age of the participants was 62.6 years with 47.6 % male. Regression spline analysis demonstrated a significant association of FGF21 levels with incident HF among participants with FGF21 levels ≥239.0 pg/mL (hazard ratio = 1.84 [95 % confidence interval 1.21, 2.80] per SD increase in ln-transformed levels) after adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers, but not in participants with FGF21 levels