Evaluating the effectiveness of the National Health Insurance Subsidy Programme within Kenya's universal health coverage initiative: a study protocol

Low-income and middle-income countries, including Kenya, are pursuing universal health coverage (UHC) through the establishment of Social Health Insurance programmes. As Kenya rolls out the recently unveiled UHC strategy that includes a national indigent cover programme, the goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of health insurance subsidy on poor households' healthcare costs and utilisation. We will also assess the effectiveness and equity in the beneficiary identification approach employed. Using a quantitative design with quasi-experimental and cross-sectional methods, our matched cohort study will recruit 1350 households across three purposively selected counties. The 'exposure' arm, enrolled in the UHC indigent programme, will be compared with a control arm of eligible but unenrolled households over 12 months. Coarsened exact matching will be used to pair households based on baseline characteristics, analysing differences in expenses and catastrophic health expenditure. A cross-sectional design will be employed to evaluate the effectiveness and equity in beneficiary identification, estimating inclusion errors associated with the subsidy programme while assessing gender equity. Ethical approval has been obtained from the Scientific and Ethics Review Unit at Kenya Medical Research Institute, with additional permissions sought from County Health Departments. Participants will provide written informed consent. Dissemination strategies include peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations and policy-maker engagement for broad accessibility and impact.