Variation in bacterial pathotype is consistent with the sit-and-wait hypothesis

The sit-and-wait hypothesis predicts that bacteria can become more virulent when they survive and transmit outside of their hosts due to circumventing the costs of host mortality. While this hypothesis is largely supported theoretically and through comparative analysis, experimental validation is limited. Here we test this hypothesis in , an opportunistic zoonotic pig pathogen, where a pathogenic ecotype proliferated during the change to intensive pig farming that amplifies opportunities for fomite transmission. We show in an environmental survival experiment that pathogenic ecotypes survive for longer than commensal ecotypes, despite similar rates of decline. The presence of a polysaccharide capsule has no consistent effect on survival. Our findings suggest that extended survival in the food chain may augment the zoonotic capability of . Moreover, eliminating the long-term environmental survival of bacteria could be a strategy that will both enhance infection control and curtail the evolution of virulence.