Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.