Shared plasma metabolomic profiles of cognitive and mobility decline predict future dementia

Experiencing decline in both cognition and mobility is associated with a substantially higher dementia risk than cognitive decline only. Metabolites associated with both cognitive and mobility declines may be early predictors of dementia and reveal specific pathways to dementia. We analyzed data from 2450 participants initially free of dementia who had 613 metabolites measured in plasma in 1998–1999 (mean age = 75.2 ± 2.9 years old, 37.8% Black, 50% women) from the Health, Aging and Body Composition study. Dementia diagnosis was determined by race-specific decline in 3MS scores, medication use, and hospital records through 2014. Cognition and mobility were repeatedly measured using 3MS and a 20-m walking test up to 10 years, respectively. We examined metabolite associations with changes in 3MS ( n = 2046) and gait speed ( n = 2019) using multivariable linear regression adjusted for age, sex, race, and baseline performance and examined metabolite associations with dementia risk using Cox regression. During a mean follow-up of 9.3 years, 534 (21.8%) participants developed dementia. On average, 3MS declined 0.47/year and gait declined 0.04 m/sec/year. After covariate adjustment, 75 metabolites were associated with cognitive decline, and 111 metabolites were associated with gait decline (FDR-adjusted p