How does land consolidation affect nongrain production? Evidence from county-level data in Jiangsu Province, China

Using county-level panel data for Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2018, this study adopted a fixed effect model to analyze the impact of land consolidation on crop planting structure, also considering the moderating effect of distance from the city center and the heterogeneous effect of various types of land consolidation. The results revealed that farmland consolidation and land reclamation had a negative impact on the proportion of grain crops (rice, wheat, and corn) cultivated, which declined by 0.0051 % (0.0069 %), 0.0055 % (0.0124 %), and 0.0101 % (0.0123 %) for every 1 % increase in investment, construction area, and newly added arable land from farmland consolidation (land reclamation), respectively, demonstrating that land consolidation has not prevented, or even encouraged nongrain production expansion. The production conditions of reclaimed arable land and land transfer practices following consolidation may be factors affecting these declines. Notably, the negative effect of land consolidation on crop planting structure weakens when the land is further away from the city center. To ensure food security, priority should be given to follow-up management after land consolidation and rational oversight and guidance following land transfer.