Temporal progression of pancreatic cancer computed tomography findings until diagnosis: A large‐scale multicenter study

Background Focal parenchymal atrophy and main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilatation have been identified as early signs of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. However, limited evidence exists regarding their temporal progression due to previous study limitations with restricted case numbers. Objective To ascertain a more precise frequency assessment of suspicious pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma findings as well as delineate the temporal progression of them. Methods A multicenter retrospective study was conducted on patients diagnosed with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2015 and 2021. We included patients who had undergone at least one computed tomography (CT) scan ≥6 months before diagnosing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The temporal progression of suspicious pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma findings on CT was investigated. Results Out of 1832 patients diagnosed with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, 320 had a previous CT before their diagnosis. Suspicious pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma findings were detected in 153 cases (47.8%), with focal parenchymal atrophy (26.6%) being the most common followed by MPD dilatation (11.3%). Focal parenchymal atrophy was the earliest detectable sign among all suspicious findings and became visible on average 2.7 years before diagnosis, and the next most common, MPD dilatation, 1.1 years before diagnosis. Other findings, such as retention cysts, were less frequent and appeared around 1 year before diagnosis. Focal parenchymal atrophy followed by MPD dilatation was observed in 10 patients but not in reverse order. Focal parenchymal atrophy was more frequently detected in the pancreatic body/tail. No significant relationship was found between the pathological pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma differentiation or tumor stage and the time course of the CT findings. All cases of focal parenchymal atrophy progressed just prior to diagnosis, and the atrophic area was occupied by tumor at diagnosis. Main pancreatic duct dilatation continued to progress until diagnosis. Conclusion This large‐scale study revealed that the temporal progression of focal parenchymal atrophy is the earliest detectable sign indicating pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. These results provide crucial insights for early pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma detection.