Biomarkers to predict efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors in colorectal cancer patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are approved to treat colorectal cancer (CRC) with mismatch-repair gene deficiency, but the response rate remains low. Value of current biomarkers to predict CRC patients’ response to ICIs is unclear due to heterogeneous study designs and small sample sizes. Here, we aim to assess and quantify the magnitude of multiple biomarkers for predicting the efficacy of ICIs in CRC patients. We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and Web of Science databases (to June 2023) for clinical studies examining biomarkers for efficacy of ICIs in CRC patients. Random-effect models were performed for meta-analysis. We pooled odds ratio (OR) and hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for biomarkers predicting response rate and survival. 36 studies with 1867 patients were included in systematic review. We found that a lower pre-treatment blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio ( n =4, HR 0.37, 95%CI 0.21–0.67) predicts good prognosis, higher tumor mutation burden ( n =10, OR 4.83, 95%CI 2.16–10.78) predicts response to ICIs, and liver metastasis ( n =16, OR 0.32, 95%CI 0.16–0.63) indicates resistance to ICIs, especially when combined with VEGFR inhibitors. But the predictive value of tumor PD-L1 expression ( n =9, OR 1.01, 95%CI 0.48–2.14) was insignificant in CRC. Blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, tumor mutation burden, and liver metastasis, but not tumor PD-L1 expression, function as significant biomarkers to predict efficacy of ICIs in CRC patients. These findings help stratify CRC patients suitable for ICI treatments, improving efficacy of immunotherapy through precise patient management. (PROSPERO, CRD42022346716).