Cost-effectiveness of screening for chronic kidney disease using a cumulative eGFR-based statistic

Routine screening for chronic kidney disease (CKD) could enable timely interventions to slow down disease progression, but currently there are no clinical guidelines for screening. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening for CKD using a novel analytical tool based on a cumulative sum statistic of estimated glomerular filtration rate (CUSUMGFR). We developed a microsimulation model that captured CKD disease progression, major complications, patients' awareness, and treatment adherence for a nationally representative synthetic cohort of age ≥ 30 years in the United States. In addition to the status quo with no screening, we considered four CUSUMGFR-based universal screening policies by frequency (annual or biennial) and starting age (30 or 60 years), and two targeted annual screening policies for patients with hypertension and diabetes, respectively. For each policy, we evaluated the total discounted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and direct health costs over a lifetime horizon and estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). We further performed one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of parameter uncertainty. Compared with the status quo, all the CUSUMGFR-based screening policies were cost-effective under the willingness-to-pay (WTP) range of $50,000 -$100,000, with the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) ranging from $15,614/DALYs averted to $54,373/DALYs averted. Universal annual screening with starting age of 30 was the non-dominated policy on the cost-effectiveness frontier under the WTP of approximately $25,000. Adding more recent treatment option of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors to the treatment regimen was found to be cost-saving. Among the most influential model parameters, variation in the CKD progression rate, adherence, and testing cost resulted in the highest variability in model outcomes. CUSUMGFR-based screening policies for CKD are highly cost-effective in identifying patients at risk of end stage kidney disease in early stages of CKD. Given its simple requirement of a basic blood test, the CUSUMGFR-based screening can be easily incorporated into clinical workflow for disease monitoring and prevention.