Predicting personal cardiovascular disease risk based on family health history: Development of expert-based family criteria for the general population

In inherited and familial cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), relatives without current symptoms can still be at risk for early and preventable cardiovascular events. One way to help people evaluate their potential risk of CVD is through a risk-assessment tool based on family health history. However, family criteria including inherited CVD risk to be used by laypersons are non-existent. In this project, we employed a qualitative study design to develop expert-based family criteria for use in individual risk assessment. In the first phase of the project, we identified potential family criteria through an online focus group with physicians with expertise in monogenic and/or multifactorial CVDs. The family criteria from phase one were then used as input for a three-round Delphi procedure carried out in a larger group of expert physicians to reach consensus on appropriate criteria. This led to consensus on five family criteria that focus on cardiovascular events at young age (i.e., sudden death, any CVD, implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, aortic aneurysm) and/or an inherited CVD in one or more close relatives. We then applied these family criteria to a high-risk cohort from a clinical genetics department and demonstrated that they have substantial diagnostic accuracy. After further evaluation in a general population cohort, we decided to only use the family criteria for first-degree relatives. We plan to incorporate these family criteria into a digital tool for easy risk assessment by the public and, based on expert advice, will develop supporting information for general practitioners to act upon potential risks identified by the tool. Results from an expert focus group, a Delphi method in a larger group of experts, and evaluation in two cohorts were used to develop family criteria for assessing cardiovascular disease risk based on family health history for a digital risk-prediction tool for use by the general population. CVD Cardiovascular disease, ICD Implantable cardioverter defibrillator, TAA Thoracic aortic aneurysm, AAA Abdominal aortic aneurysm.