Neurobehavioral Reward and Sleep-Circadian Profiles Predict Present and Next-Year Mania/Hypomania Symptoms

Heightened reward sensitivity/impulsivity, related neural activity, and sleep-circadian disruption are important risk factors for bipolar spectrum disorders, the defining feature of which is mania/hypomania. Our goal was to identify neurobehavioral profiles based on reward and sleep-circadian features and examine their specificity to mania/hypomania versus depression vulnerability. At baseline, a transdiagnostic sample of 324 adults (18–25 years) completed trait measures of reward sensitivity (Behavioral Activation Scale), impulsivity (UPPS-P-Negative Urgency), and a functional magnetic resonance imaging card-guessing reward task (left ventrolateral prefrontal activity to reward expectancy, a neural correlate of reward motivation and impulsivity, was extracted). At baseline, 6-month follow-up, and 12-month follow-up, the Mood Spectrum Self-Report Measure – Lifetime Version assessed lifetime predisposition to subthreshold-syndromal mania/hypomania, depression, and sleep-circadian disturbances (insomnia, sleepiness, reduced sleep need, rhythm disruption). Mixture models derived profiles from baseline reward, impulsivity, and sleep-circadian variables. Three profiles were identified: 1) healthy (no reward or sleep-circadian disruption; n = 162); 2) moderate-risk (moderate reward and sleep-circadian disruption; n = 109); and 3) high-risk (high impulsivity and sleep-circadian disruption; n = 53). At baseline, the high-risk group had significantly higher mania/hypomania scores than the other groups but did not differ from the moderate-risk group in depression scores. Over the follow-up period, the high-risk and moderate-risk groups exhibited elevated mania/hypomania scores, whereas depression scores increased at a faster rate in the healthy group than in the other groups. Cross-sectional and next-year predisposition to mania/hypomania is associated with a combination of heightened reward sensitivity and impulsivity, related reward circuitry activity, and sleep-circadian disturbances. These measures can be used to detect mania/hypomania risk and provide targets to guide and monitor interventions.